El Paso County, Colorado is the home to Colorado Springs, and is the second most populous county in Colorado as of 2026. It also has a large military presence, being home to both the Air Force Academy and Fort Carson.

Because of this, El Paso County has been one of the most populous red blocks in the country, voting republican in every presidential election since LBJ defeated Barry Goldwater in 1964.

Additionally, the Democratic nominee is not a left wing progressive compared to other prominent candidates seen in the news throughout this cycle in other counties/states, even in Colorado (with Melat Kiros defeating Dianna Degette in CO-1’s Democratic Primary).

It is for these reasons that I am going to be keeping a close eye on CO-5 and El Paso County in the 2026 Midterms, to see if democrats can actually win.

Despite the country generally moving to Donald Trump by about 6 percentage points in the 2024 election nationally compared to 2020, and Colorado as a whole moving to the right by about 2 percentage points in the most recent Presidential contest, El Paso County actually bucked the trend.

In 2020, Donald Trump won El Paso county by nearly 11 percentage points, but in 2024 Kamala Harris was able to cut the margin to almost 6 percentage points, making CO-5 one of the only places in the country to move significantly to the left in 2024 compared to 2020.

Not only are we seeing a political climate that seems to be moving significantly to the left of the last national election for these midterms (which on its own may be enough to characterize CO-5 as competitive), there are several other factors that may help swing CO-5 toward the democrat Jessica Killin.

For one thing, Victor Marx is now the Republican nominee for Governor of Colorado, a candidate that republicans seem increasingly worried will hurt down ballot races, including incumbent Jeff Crank in CO-5. Additionally, Donald Trump has been unkind to the military establishment in El Paso County, due to it being located in blue Colorado. For example, Trump is working on moving the Space Force Base from Colorado Springs to Huntsville Alabama, a move wildly unpopular in Colorado Springs.

Additionally, I think Democrats have nominated a solid candidate in Jessica Killin, a woman who grew up in Colorado Springs and has a military background, things that will appeal to the people of El Paso County.

So I’m watching this race with immense curiosity as it may be the surprise of the night. Colorado will surely get attention in CO-8, as Gabe Davis is defending an incredibly vulnerable seat and Lauren Boebert in CO-4 always manages to make national news. But this will answer a few questions for me, namely: How strong is the democratic advantage in 2026? And is this advantage going to extend to more moderate democratic candidates like Jessica Killin?

Maybe El Paso County will be able to elect a democrat for the first time in a long time in a major rebuke to Trump.

-TMR